WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the ten most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year.
Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris.
Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “big picture true false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”
The keys include whether:
The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections
The sitting president is running for re-election
The White House party is avoiding a primary contest
There is a third-party challenger
The short-term economy is strong
The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms
The White House party has made major changes to national policy
There is sustained social unrest during the term
The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic
The challenger is uncharismatic
The incumbent is charismatic
The White House party has major failure in foreign policy
The White House party has foreign policy success.
Eight of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
That leaves Harris winning the White House, he said. “At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
Contributing: Karissa Waddick
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Historian Allan Lichtman predicts who will win the 2024 election
